Associate professor in actuarial science at the University of Amsterdam and at KU Leuven (main affiliation).
MSc in Mathematics (KU Leuven, 2003) and PhD in statistics and actuarial science (KU Leuven, 2007).
Grants and awards
Argenta Research chair on loss modeling and reserving (since 2017).
Ageas CE Research chair in insurance analytics at KU Leuven (as promoter) (since 2015).
Grant awarded by the Belgian National Bank (NBB) ('finaliteitsbeurs') for the PhD project of Anastasios Bardoutsos (KU Leuven) on 'Econometric models for insurance applications: essays on Bayesian mortality models, heavy tails and extreme value statistics'.
C2 research project (601,500 euro) awarded by KU Leuven's research council (as promoter), since October 2015.
IWT Strategisch Basis Onderzoek grant for the project 'Innovative pricing and reserving for non-life insurance' (nr. 131173), financing PhD student Roel Verbelen, January 2014-December 2017. Promoter: Gerda Claeskens, co-promoter: Katrien Antonio.
Carefin – Bocconi Centre for Applied Research in Finance research grant for the project Bayesian mortality models for two and more (sub)populations, with A. Bardoutsos and W. Ouburg, December 2013.
Best session award as voted by the participants at the Casualty Loss Reserve Seminar, Casualty Actuarial Society, Boston, USA, September 2013.
Research grant from FWO (Belgium) in 2012 (244,000 euro) for the project 'Stochastic models in health insurance' (with prof. Jan Dhaene (KU Leuven) and prof. Michel Denuit (UCL)).
Johan de Witt prize (2011) by the Dutch Actuarial Association for their paper 'Micro-level stochastic loss reserving' (with dr. Richard Plat).
Veni grant (2009) by NWO (250,000 euro) for the project 'Non-life: a life insurance approach'.
Pricing and reserving for non-life, life and health insurance.
Mortality modeling and forecasting.
Using R and SAS.
Consulting work and CPD courses
Katrien is available for consulting work and CPD courses that meet her research interests.
Examples of recent in house trainings: stochastic loss reserving, stochastic modeling of longevity risk, predictive modeling, predictive modeling in non-life insurance, loss reserving, ...
Life and non-life insurance, predictive modeling, analytics, general statistics and probability theory, statistics for finance and insurance (at KU Leuven and University of Amsterdam).
Current courses: Inleiding Levenactuariaat (UvA, Bachelor in actuariële wetenschappen), APC 3 on disability insurance (with Wilbert Ouburg and Pieter Bultena), Loss Models (KU Leuven, Master in Insurance Studies), Advanced Non-Life Insurance Mathematics (KU Leuven, Master in Financial and Actuarial Engineering) and Advanced Life Insurance Mathematics (KU Leuven, Master in Financial and Actuarial Engineering).
MSc Thesis supervision
The MSc thesis by Roel Henckaerts (suoervisor: Katrien Antonio) was awarded the IA|BE prize in 2017. Topic: a data driven binning strategy for risk factors in P&C insurance.
The MSc thesis by Rachel Bonsel (supervisor: Katrien Antonio) was short listed for the HK Van Nieuwenhuis prize for the best thesis in economics at UvA. Topic: The effect of the economic climate on morbidity.
The MSc thesis by Maxime Clijsters (supervisor: Katrien Antonio) was awarded the Johan de Witt thesis prize 2015 for the best quantitative thesis (by the Dutch Actuarial Association) and the IA|BE prize in 2016. Topic: Dealing with continuous variables and geographical information in non-life insurance ratemaking. Practical solutions applied to a car insurance data set.
The MSc thesis by Bruno De Laet (supervisor: Katrien Antonio) was awarded the IA|BE prize in 2015. Topic: regression trees and ensembles of trees for P&C pricing.
The MSc thesis by Roel Verbelen (supervisor: Katrien Antonio & Tim Verdonck) was awarded the IA|BE prize (by the Belgian Institute of Actuaries) in 2014. Topic: phase type distributions, mixtures of Erlangs.
The MSc thesis by Wilbert Ouburg (supervisor: Katrien Antonio) was nominated for the Johan de Witt prijs 2013 and was awarded the Netspar thesis award 2014. Topic: Bayesian single and multivariate population mortality models.
The MSc thesis written by Hok-Kwan Kan (under supervision of Katrien Antonio) was nominated for the Johan de Witt prijs 2012 (2nd place) and was awarded the Netspar thesis award in 2013. Topic: Bayesian experience rating in mortality.
The MSc thesis written by Frederik Borgers (under supervision of Katrien Antonio) was awarded the IA|BE prize (by the Belgian Institute of Actuaries) in March 2012. Topic: micro-level loss reserving.
The MSc thesis written by Frank Van Berkum (under supervision of Katrien Antonio) was awarded in 2011 the H.K. Van Nieuwenhuis prize for the best thesis in economics at UvA. Topic: tarification in automobile insurance.
Best AFI (Accountancy/Finance/Insurance) papers at Faculty of Economics & Business (KU Leuven): Laurence Verheye & Siska Depril (2012) on mortality forecasting with the AG projection method, Bruno De Laet (2013) on mortality improvement rate modeling.
Other (selected) recent MSc thesis projects: Laurence Verheye & Siska Depril (KU Leuven) on Rosenlund's RDC reserving method (2012), Roel Verbelen (KU Leuven) on Phase type distributions and mixtures of Erlangs - as study of theoretical concepts, calibration techniques and actuarial applications (2013), Bruno De Laet (KU Leuven) on Regression trees and ensembles of trees in P&C pricing (2014), Lianne Westinga (UvA) and Lize Devolder (KU Leuven) on Computational aspects of calibrating and projection of stochastic mortality models (2014).
[WP.1] K. Antonio, L. Devolder & S. Devriendt. 2015. The IA|BE 2015 mortality projection for the Belgian population. Published by the Belgian Institute of Actuaries (IA|BE).
[WP.2] E. Stripling, S. vanden Broucke, K. Antonio, B. Baesens & M. Snoeck. 2016. Profit maximizing logistic model for customer churn prediction using genetic algorithms. R&R.
[WP.3] K. Antonio, S. Devriendt, et al. 2016. Producing the Dutch and Belgian mortality projections: a stochastic multi-population standard for life contingent risk management. AFI Research Report, AFI16111. Submitted.
[WP.4] T. Reynkens, R. Verbelen, J. Beirlant & K. Antonio. Modeling censored losses using splicing: a global fit strategy with mixed Erlang and extreme value distributions. R&R.
[WP.5] R. Verbelen, K. Antonio, G. Claeskens. Unravelling the predictive power of telematics data in car insurance pricing. KBI Research Report, KBI1624. Submitted.
[WP.6] R. Henckaerts, K. Antonio, M. Clijsters & R. Verbelen. A data driven binning strategy for the construction of risk classes. Submitted.
Keynote speaker Big data, digitale innovatie en de gevolgen voor de verzekeringssector, Amsterdam Center for Insurance Studies, Amsterdam, October 18.
Keynote speaker 3rd conference of the European Actuarial Journal, ISFA, Lyon, France, September 6-8.
On mortality modeling and forecasting with multi-population data. Risk and insurance seminar, UW Madison, August 2.
Keynote speaker Structured and unstructured data - Insurance analytics, products and risk management of the future, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Versicherungs- und Finanzmathematik, Hannover, Germany, June 16.
Micro-level stochastic loss reserving for general insurance: a multi-state approach with flexible payment distributions. Seminar at Université de Lausanne, October 31.
Bayesian Poisson log-bilinear models for mortality projections with multiple populations. Seminar at QUANTACT, UQAM, Montréal, August 3.
Micro-level loss reserving. Seminar at Stockholm University, May 27.
Statistics seminar at University of Bologna, Italy, June 5, 2014.
Live long and prosper: actuaries and mortality forecasts, Colloquium dept. of Mathematics, KU Leuven, Belgium, February 28, 2014.
Micro level stochastic loss reserving for general insurance. Talk in the actuarial statistics session (host: prof. Tim Verdonck) at ERCIM 2013, University College London (UK), December 15, 2013.
Stochastische schadereservering op microniveau. 50 jaar ASTIN. Verleden, heden en toekomst. (with H.J. Plat), Celebrating 50 years of ASTIN The Netherlands, Soest, October 29, 2013.
Individual loss reserving. CAS Loss Reserve Seminar. Boston, September 15-17, 2013.
Individual loss reserving with the multivariate skew normal framework. Talk in the claims reserving session (host: prof. Mario Wüthrich) at the Cramér Symposium in Insurance Mathematics, Stockholm University (Sweden), June 11-14, 2013.
Structural breaks in mortality rates with an application to Dutch and Belgian data (with Frank Van Berkum and Michel Vellekoop). Insurance: Mathematics and Economics conference, Copenhagen, July 2, 2013.
Revisiting Rosenlund's Reserving by Detailed Conditiong (RDC) method (with Els Godecharle). Insurance; Mathematics and Economics conference, Copenhagen, July 1, 2013.
Individual loss reserving with the multivariate skew normal framework. Cramer Symposium in Insurance Mathematics, Stockholm University, June 14, 2013.
Individual loss reserving with the multivariate skew normal framework. ASTIN Colloquium, The Hague, May 22, 2013.
Bayesian stochastic mortality models for two populations: A technical note on MCMC sampling. PanHellenic Statistics Conference. Piraeus, Greece, 8-11 May 2013. (A. Bardoutsos, with K. Antonio & W. Ouburg)
Micro-level stochastic loss reserving. Cass Business School, London, October 24, 2012.
Micro-level stochastic loss reserving. KU Leuven, October 18, 2012.
Stochastic mortality models. KU Leuven, July 6, 2011.
A multilevel analysis of intercompany claim counts. Statistics Canada, Concordia University, Montreal, July 3, 2011.
Micro-level stochastic loss reserving. Presentation for the Johan de Witt prijs (with Richard Plat), Utrecht, May 27, 2011.
Short course on claims reserving. University of Barcelona, April 26-27, 2011.
A micro model for IBNR and RBNS loss reserving. Technical University of Lisbon, September 16, 2010.
A micro model for IBNR and RBNS loss reserving. University of Amsterdam, KAFEE Lunch Seminar, May 10, 2010.
A micro model for IBNR and RBNS loss reserving. University of Oldenburg, Mathematical Institute, Oldenburg (Germany), April 14, 2010.
Credibiliteit voor de hedendaagse schadeactuaris: een bruikbare interpretatie van een actuariele hoeksteen. ASTIN day Dutch Actuarial Association, Amsterdam, November 5,2009.
A multilevel analysis of intercompany claim counts. University of Waterloo, Waterloo (Canada), December 2, 2008.
Stripling, E., vanden Broucke, S., Antonio, K., Baesens, B., & Snoeck, M. (2018). Profit maximizing logistic model for customer churn prediction using genetic algorithms. Swarm and Evolutionary Computation, 40, 116-130. DOI: 10.1016/j.swevo.2017.10.010[details]
Henckaerts, R., Antonio, K., Clijsters, M., & Verbelen, R. (2018). A data driven binning strategy for the construction of insurance tariff classes. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2018(8), 681-705. DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2018.1429300[details]
Antonio, K., Devriendt, S., de Boer, W., de Vries, R., De Waegenaere, A., Kan, H. K., ... Vellekoop, M. (2017). Producing the Dutch and Belgian mortality projections: a stochastic multi-population standard. European Actuarial Journal, 7(2), 297-336. DOI: 10.1007/s13385-017-0159-x[details]
Reynkens, T., Verbelen, R., Beirlant, J., & Antonio, K. (2017). Modelling censored losses using splicing: a global fit strategy with mixed Erlang and extreme value distributions. Insurance: Mathematics & Economics, 77, 65-77. DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2017.08.005[details]
Dhaene, J., Godecharle, E., Antonio, K., Denuit, M., & Hanbali, H. (2017). Lifelong health insurance covers with surrender values: updating mechanisms in the presence of medical inflation. ASTIN Bulletin, 47(3), 803-836. DOI: 10.1017/asb.2017.13[details]
van Berkum, F., Antonio, K., & Vellekoop, M. (2017). A Bayesian joint model for population and portfolio-specific mortality. ASTIN Bulletin, 47(3), 681-713. DOI: 10.1017/asb.2017.17[details]
van Berkum, F., Antonio, K., & Vellekoop, M. (2016). The impact of multiple structural changes on mortality predictions. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2016(7), 581-603. DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2014.987807[details]
Verbelen, R., Antonio, K., & Claeskens, G. (2016). Multivariate mixtures of Erlangs for density estimation under censoring. Lifetime Data Analysis, 22(3), 429-455. DOI: 10.1007/s10985-015-9343-y[details]
Antonio, K., Bardoutsos, A., & Ouburg, W. (2015). Bayesian Poisson log-bilinear models for mortality projections with multiple populations. European Actuarial Journal, 5(2), 245-281. DOI: 10.1007/s13385-015-0115-6[details]
Godecharle, E., & Antonio, K. (2015). Reserving by conditioning on markers of individual claims: a case study using historical simulation. North American Actuarial Journal, 19(4), 273-288. DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2015.1046607[details]
Verbelen, R., Gong, L., Antonio, K., Badescu, A., & Lin, S. (2015). Fitting mixtures of Erlangs to censored and truncated data using the EM algorithm. ASTIN Bulletin, 45(3), 729-758. DOI: 10.1017/asb.2015.15[details]
Antonio, K., & Zhang, Y. (2014). Linear mixed models. In E. W. Frees, R. A. Derrig, & G. Meyers (Eds.), Predictive modeling applications in actuarial science - Vol. 1: predictive modeling techniques (pp. 182-216). (International Series on Actuarial Science). New York: Cambridge University Press. [details]
Antonio, K., & Zhang, Y. (2014). Nonlinear mixed models. In E. W. Frees, R. A. Derrig, & G. Meyers (Eds.), Predictive modeling applications in actuarial science - Vol. 1: predictive modeling techniques (pp. 398-426). (International Series on Actuarial Science). New York: Cambridge University Press. [details]
Antonio, K., Shi, P., & van Berkum, F. (2014). Longitudinal data and experience rating. In A. Charpentier (Ed.), Computational actuarial science with R (pp. 511-542). (Chapman & Hall/CRC The R Series). Boca Raton: CRC Press. [details]
Antonio, K., & Plat, R. (2014). Micro-level stochastic loss reserving for general insurance. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2014(7), 649-699. DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2012.755938[details]
Pigeon, M., Antonio, K., & Denuit, M. (2013). Individual loss reserving with the multivariate skew normal framework. ASTIN Bulletin, 43(3), 399-428. DOI: 10.1017/asb.2013.20[details]
Vercruysse, W., Dhaene, J., Denuit, M., Pitacco, E., & Antonio, K. (2013). Premium indexing in lifelong health insurance. Far East Journal of Mathematical Sciences, Special Volume(4), 365-384. [details]
Antonio, K., & Valdez, E. (2012). Statistical concepts of a priori and a posteriori risk classification in insurance. AStA-Advances in Statistical Analysis, 96(2), 187-224. DOI: 10.1007/s10182-011-0152-7[details]
Antonio, K., Frees, E. W., & Valdez, E. A. (2010). A multilevel analysis of intercompany claim counts. ASTIN Bulletin, 40(1), 151-177. DOI: 10.2143/AST.40.1.2049223[details]
Antonio, K., & Beirlant, J. (2008). Issues in claims reserving and credibility: a semiparametric approach with mixed models. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 75(3), 643-676. DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6975.2008.00278.x[details]
Antonio, K., & Beirlant, J. (2008). Risk classification in nonlife insurance. In E. L. Melnick, & B. S. Everitt (Eds.), Encyclopedia of quantitative risk analysis and assessment. - Vol. 4 (pp. 1530-1535). Chichester [etc.]: Wiley. [details]
van Calster, H., Endels, P., Antonio, K., Verheyen, K., & Hermy, M. (2008). Coppice management effects on experimentally established populations of three herbaceous layer woodland species. Biological Conservation, 141(10), 2641-2652. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2008.08.001[details]
Antonio, K., Beirlant, J., Hoedemakers, T., & Verlaak, R. (2006). Lognormal mixed models for reported claims reserves. North American Actuarial Journal, 10(1), 30-48. DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2006.10596238
Antonio, K., Beirlant, J., & Hoedemakers, T. (2005). Discussion on 'A Bayesian generalized linear model for the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method of claims reserving'. North American Actuarial Journal, 9(3), 143-145.
Antonio, K., Goovaerts, M., & Hoedemakers, T. (2004). On the distribution of Discounted Loss Reserves. Medium Econometrische Toepassingen, 12(3), 12-16. [details]
Antonio, K., & Devriendt, S. (2015). Lang leven in België: een nieuwe prognose. (Leuvense Economische Standpunten; No. LES 2015/151). Leuven: KU Leuven. [details]
Antonio, K., & Plat, R. (2013). Stochastische schadereservering op microniveau. In F. Thooft (Ed.), 50 jaar ASTIN: verleden, heden en toekomst (pp. 28-31). Utrecht: Koninklijk Actuarieel Genootschap. [details]
Antonio, K. (2012). Bijlage bij prognosetafel AG2012-2062: sluiten van de periodetafel GBM/V 2005-2010. Utrecht: Actuarieel Genootschap & Actuarieel Instituut. [details]
Antonio, K., van der Heijden, A. M. J. H., Meijer, R. E. V., Smit, C. T., Tornij, J. H., de Vries, R. W. J., ... van Zijp, P. P. C. (2012). Prognosetafel AG 2012-2062. Utrecht: Het Actuarieel Genootschap / Actuarieel Instituut. [details]
Antonio, K., & Plat, R. (2012). Schadereservering anders?: van driehoeken naar micro-data. Actuaris, 19(6), 32-34. [details]